منابع مشابه
The Forward Guidance Puzzle
With short-term interest rates at the zero lower bound, forward guidance has become a key tool for central bankers, and yet we know little about its effectiveness. This paper first empirically documents the impact of forward guidance announcements on a broad cross section of financial markets data and professional forecasts. We find that FOMC announcements containing forward guidance had hetero...
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What are the effects of forward guidance or, more generally, of news about the future? Workhorse macroeconomic models answer this question by imposing a strong form of common knowledge: every agent is, not only aware of, or attentive to, the news, but also confident that everyone is aware, that everyone is confident that everyone is aware, and so on. Once this assumption is relaxed, expectation...
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Four key guidance points in the UNAIDS guidance document, Ethical Considerations in HIV Preventive Vaccine Research, are compared with analogous statements in three other recently issued documents dealing with international research. Those documents are: the Declaration of Helsinki, as revised in 2000; the report of the U.S. National Bioethics Advisory Commission, issued in 2001; and a current ...
متن کاملThe Power of Forward Guidance Revisited
In recent years, central banks have increasingly turned to “forward guidance” as a central tool of monetary policy, especially as interest rates around the world have hit the zero lower bound. Standard monetary models imply that far future forward guidance is extremely powerful: promises about far future interest rates have huge effects on current economic outcomes, and these effects grow with ...
متن کاملAdaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance
In a Cagan-type model of inflation we investigate how announcements of forward guidance may help lower inflation persistence. An important component of the model is heterogenous expectation formation: while market participants consider a time series model that uses sample autocorrelation learning, the Central Bank uses least squares learning of the MSV solution. Under certain parameter settings...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1945-7707,1945-7715
DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170335